2×2 scenario matrix
A concept in strategic foresight and anticipatory governance
A common way to build scenarios. It crosses two critical uncertainties, each with two extremes, to produce four distinct futures. One example crosses the pace of AI development with the value of credentials.
Background
The method is often associated with Global Business Network, the scenario firm founded by Peter Schwartz and colleagues in 1987. Its strength is that it holds two uncertainties in view at once. Its limit is that the four futures depend heavily on which two uncertainties are chosen.
A question it raises
What are the two uncertainties that matter most to our future?
Related concepts