Scenario
A concept in strategic foresight and anticipatory governance
A coherent description of a future that could unfold. Scenarios are used in sets, because the point is to see several futures side by side. A decision that works in only one of them is a bet.
Background
Scenario planning became widely known through Royal Dutch Shell, whose planners used scenarios in the early 1970s and were better prepared than many companies for the oil shock of 1973. Useful scenarios are plausible, distinct from one another and challenging. None of them is meant to be the official forecast.
A question it raises
Does this decision still make sense in each of our scenarios?
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